![]() And here’s the rub: his all-volunteer team is composed entirely of so-called ordinary people with ordinary jobs. government agency, providing more accurate answers than even those with access to classified files. Remarkably, in his seminal 20-year study, the author established that, on average, these “experts” are “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” On the other hand, the superforecasters Tetlock has recruited are far more accurate: his team handily beat their competitors in a forecasting tournament sponsored by a U.S. ![]() ![]() Legions of intelligent, well-educated, and well-paid analysts digest data and attempt to make hundreds of nuanced predictions each year. In fact, much of it has significantly higher stakes: everything from the potential of conflict in the North China Sea to the 2016 presidential election is at play. Global forecasting is hardly limited to predicting the weather. World-renowned behavioral scientist Tetlock ( Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know, 2005, etc.) explains why some people are so good at it and how others can cultivate the skill. Superforecasting-predicting events that will occur in the future-is not only possible it accounts for an entire industry. ![]()
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